AV Referendum

I went to local Labour Party meeting a couple days ago and we spent quite a while debating the referendum on alternative voting reform. Personally I've been in two minds about it and the meeting left me even more perplexed so I think I'l lay out the pros and cons.

Alternative voting is definitely more democratic than the one vote system; it quite efficiently eliminates the need for tactical voting as you can vote with your principals first and then a more likely candidate second, thus people can vote for Green party without wasting their vote. I welcome any strengthening of democracy and one side of me feels obligated to vote yes on anything which help to make the House of Commons better represent the will of the people.

The projected results of this kind of voting look good as well. The Green Party would have a better chance of winning seats and in the very least they would increase their percentage of the vote over the country and help legitimise them as a respectable party, ready for future success. It seems to be generally agreed that the Libdems will prosper under AV but I beg to differ; the Libdems have thrived on tactical votes and I think they will be relegated to second choice in a lot of peoples votes, I think any real gains will be offset by the loss of so many tactical votes. Labour will likely be unaffected by these changes but the Conservatives may take a few losses. I doubt the BNP would make any ground but UKIP may be able to finally gain a seat. Overall this will create a a slightly more diverse parliament but the changes will not be significant to prevent one party governments, as long as we maintain constituency seats the status quo will remain.

A friend of mine suggested that the only way to real electoral reform is through small steps like this; even if this is a small move it is a least a move in the right direction. That is the case for, now to the case against AV.

AV is a compromise which no one is happy with; the Conservatives like things the way they are, the Libdems want PR and Labour don't know what they want. In a confused coalition government this seems to be poor choice because it doesn't really change anything. AV doesn't confront any of the problems of the current system; the fate of the country will still be decided by the votes of certain swing constituencies and the voters within safe seats will still be alienated. The small parties which gain large amounts of the popular vote but few or no seats (though this is not such a bad thing in the case of the BNP) still won't have a voice equal to the amount of votes cast.

The biggest problem I have personally I have with voting yes for AV is that I want PR and to vote yes on this referendum is going to release all the pressure on the government for real electoral reform. During the negotiations between the Libdems and the Conservatives it really felt that it was time for Proportional Representation and if we waste this current demand for electoral reform on such a poor compromise we may have to wait another generation to get some real change. The counter argument is that if I vote no for AV the government will interpret that as a vote for the current system, quite a dilemma.

A final rather cynical, and yet very relevant, point was added at the meeting by another Labour member: if we vote no it will piss off Nick Clegg and his party. If the Libdems fail to achieve any electoral reform two important things may happen: Firstly it could collapse the coalition, thus forcing the Conservatives to try and run government without a majority. Secondly it would sap the Libdem vote in the next election, if the Libdems prop up the Conservative without getting any real reform in return large swathes of their voters will abandon them.

So that is my dilemma summed up. I am deadlocked at the moment, luckily there is 10 months to decide. If you have any thoughts that could tip the balance I'd love to hear them.